About

This is a project created for the EU datathon challenge.

The website has been designed for use on desktop and laptop computers and pads. It has been tested to work on all modern browsers. No support is provided for Internet Explorer.

Data

Most of the data is available both on EU level and country level.

Sector Confidence Indicators

Confidence indicators are arithmetic means of seasonally adjusted balances of answers to a selection of questions closely related to the reference variables they are tracking. These utilize the Eurostat sentiment indicators dataset ei_bssi_m_r2.

Economic: Economic sentiment indicator, point change to previous month, seasonally adjusted (Eurostat ei_bssi_m_r2)
Industrial: Industrial confidence indicator, point change to previous month, seasonally adjusted (Eurostat ei_bssi_m_r2)
Construction: Construction confidence indicator, point change to previous month, seasonally adjusted (Eurostat ei_bssi_m_r2)
Retail: Retail confidence indicator, point change to previous month, seasonally adjusted (Eurostat ei_bssi_m_r2)
Consumer: Consumer confidence indicator, point change to previous month, seasonally adjusted (Eurostat ei_bssi_m_r2)
Services: Services confidence indicator, point change to previous month, seasonally adjusted (Eurostat ei_bssi_m_r2)

Macroeconomic Data

These utilize four datasets from Eurostat: quarterly national accounts namq_10_gdp, harmonized index of consumer prices prc_hicp_mmor, money market interest rates irt_st_m, and long term government bond yields teimf050.

GDP: Gross domestic product at market prices, chain linked volumes, percentage change to previous quarter, seasonally and calendar adjusted (Eurostat namq_10_gdp)
Inflation: Harmonized index of consumer prices, all items, monthly rate of change (Eurostat prc_hicp_mmor)
Short rate: 1-month money market interest rate, monthly data (Eurostat irt_st_m)
Long rate: 10-year government bond yield (Maastricht criterion, long term EMU convergence), monthly data (Eurostat teimf050)
Investment: Gross fixed capital formation, chain linked volumes, percentage change to previous quarter, seasonally and calendar adjusted (Eurostat namq_10_gdp)
Export: Exports of goods and services, chain linked volumes, percentage change to previous quarter, seasonally and calendar adjusted (Eurostat namq_10_gdp)
Import: Imports of goods and services, chain linked volumes, percentage change to previous quarter, seasonally and calendar adjusted (Eurostat namq_10_gdp)
Consumption: Final consumption expenditure of households, chain linked volumes, percentage change to previous quarter, seasonally and calendar adjusted (Eurostat namq_10_gdp)

Growth Forecasts

These include EU area, Euro area, and country forecasts of several institutions.

Euro Area Forecast (OECD): Euro area GDP growth at market prices, percentage change to previous year, forecast of May 2019 (OECD, http://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/economic-outlook/)
Euro Area Forecast (ECB): Euro area GDP growth at market prices, percentage change to previous year, forecast of March 2019 (ECB, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/projections/html/index.en.html)
EU Area Forecast (Commission): EU area GDP volume growth, percentage change to previous year, forecast of May 2019 (European Commission, https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/economic-performance-and-forecasts/economic-forecasts_en)
Country Forecast (Commission): Country GDP volume growth, percentage change to previous year, forecast of May 2019 (European Commission, https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/economic-performance-and-forecasts/economic-forecasts_en)

Sector Growth

These utilize the Eurostat quarterly national accounts international cooperation dataset naidq_10_a10.

Industrial: Industry (except construction), chain linked volumes (indexed), point change to previous quarter, seasonally and calendar adjusted (Eurostat naidq_10_a10)
Manufacturing: Manufacturing, chain linked volumes (indexed), point change to previous quarter, seasonally and calendar adjusted (Eurostat naidq_10_a10)
Construction: Construction, chain linked volumes (indexed), point change to previous quarter, seasonally and calendar adjusted (Eurostat naidq_10_a10)
Retail: Wholesale and retail trade, transport, accomodation, and food service activities, chain linked volumes (indexed), point change to previous quarter, seasonally and calendar adjusted (Eurostat naidq_10_a10)
Finance: Financial and insurance activities, chain linked volumes (indexed), point change to previous quarter, seasonally and calendar adjusted (Eurostat naidq_10_a10)
Real estate: Real estate activities, chain linked volumes (indexed), point change to previous quarter, seasonally and calendar adjusted (Eurostat naidq_10_a10)

Stock Market

The stock market time series data is obtained through the Alpha Vantage API (https://www.alphavantage.co/). Performances of exchange traded funds (ETFs) are used to track the stock market indices of the EU area and the countries. Performance of the Europe ETF is shown for all countries and the EU area. Performances of country-specific ETFs are shown for countries for which a stock-market-listed ETF is widely available. The time series show the development of an initial 100 euro investment.

Forecast is shown for the country ETF of the selected country or for the Europe ETF if the EU area is selected. If a country ETF is not available for the selected country, forecast is shown for the Europe ETF.

Europe ETF: Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF
Country ETFs: Country-specific iShares MSCI ETFs
Forecast: Simple exponential smoothing method (Hyndman and Athanasopoulos, https://otexts.com/fpp2/ses.html). The smoothing parameter k = 2.0/(d + 1.0), with d = 21, corresponding to average amount of trading days in a month.
Forecast Low: Lower bound of the 95% confidence interval of the forecast. Calculated for an h-step forecast (h = 21) using the calculated standard deviation of the residuals.
Forecast High: Higher bound of the 95% confidence interval of the forecast. Calculated for an h-step forecast (h = 21) using the calculated standard deviation of the residuals.

Known issues: Alpha Vantage API allows only 5 requests/user/minute. Therefore, there can be some delays in drawing the time series if the user clicks through the countries very quickly.

Map Coloring
The map can be colored with all of the values and indicators listed above. That is, any of the sector confidence indicators, macroeconomic data, growth forecasts, and sector growth values can be used. The data shown on the map corresponds to the definitions given above.

Disclaimers

The content on herein is for information purposes only and it is not intended to be investment advice. No responsibility or liability is assumed for any errors or omissions in the content and no guarantees are given for completeness, accuracy, usefulness or timeliness of the information.

Created by

Ida Peltonen
Viljami Maakala